U.S. efforts to curb Chinese influence in the South Pacific Ocean

This story was reported and written by Luke Anderson, Emil Asaf, Billy Banks, Kiley Beykirch, Nolan Carney, Sasha Chapman, Taylor Chronert, Garrett Cook, Lillie Davidson, Caroline Denning, Hannah Dollar, Ella Funke, Georgie Hager, Gavin Hughes, Jaida Joyner, Caroline Kellam, Cecilia Le, Olivia Lee, Abby McCutchan, Paul John McMahon, Sydney Miller, Katie Mitchell, Jordan Montgomery, Anne Murdock Stewart, Hayden Olander, Logan Rose, Alexandria Salinas, Mattea Skinner, Corrigan Smiley, Sarah Smith, Jose Straface, Alicia Takacs, Madeleine Thornhill and Lailah White.

Why China is interested in the South Pacific

A driving motive for China's involvement in the South Pacific can be found in the oil fields that lie within the borders of the island nations.

In addition to efforts of partnering with the countries, China has begun constructing man-made islands and reefs in the region, theoretically giving them water and mining rights to the area.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, China is the world's largest importer of oil following decades of being an oil exporter.

Now, to keep up with the demand of their manufacturing economy, the nation is eager to find reserves beyond their borders to make up for the deficit.

The South Pacific Island nations' oil deposits would increase China's reserves and significantly contribute to its infrastructure projects around the world.

Fiji becomes a focus for the PRC

Fiji, an island that is 0.19% the size of the United States, is of particular interest to China. It holds important economic and strategic value through its agricultural and fishing industries, as well as its access to critical maritime routes.

Fiji’s resources and well-positioned geographic location have designated the island as a focal point for power struggles among some of the globe's most influential nations.

“While the land masses of the Pacific Islands appear small on the map, their exclusive economic zones encompass a vast area that is critical to global security and vital to the global economy, hosting a large portion of the world’s shipping, fisheries, and naval corridors,” according to the U.S. Department of State.

In an attempt to build a sphere of influence on the island, China established a security partnership between the two nations in 2011.

This partnership created police training programs between Chinese and Fijian officers and initiated the implementation of sophisticated surveillance equipment, including closed-circuit cameras and drones.

The result is heavy police intervention in Fiji with Chinese officials commandeering cases designated for Fiji officials.

“There were knocks on people’s doors in [the city of] Nadi, and there were Chinese people in full uniform arresting people,” said Aman Ravindra-Singh, a human rights and constitutional lawyer in Fiji. “It was unheard of. It’s almost like we were invaded.”

In response to China’s increase in police presence, Fijian Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka terminated the security agreement in 2023.

In the 2022 election, the Bainimarama party, which is known for supporting policies that promoted strong ties to Chinese police, lost the majority in the Fijian parliament for the first time since 2014. Rabuka was elected parliament leader by one vote. Contrary to the Bainimarama party, Rabuka has been a consistent advocate for Fijian nonalignment.

The United States has continued to pursue the development of stronger ties in Fiji, deeming it necessary for national security and the preservation of U.S. global influence. 

“When the U.S. does not fulfill its commitments in the Pacific it creates a vacuum that China is waiting to fill,” said Steven McGann, former U.S. ambassador to Fiji.  

TCU's involvement in finding a solution

The need for U.S. involvement in the Southwest Pacific Islands, specifically from university researchers, is on the rise due to the alarming fact that “China will likely become the largest economy by 2030,” according to Bluntzer.

To combat China’s influence in the Pacific and abroad, energy solutions are needed to strengthen these island countries. Not only does energy help solve geopolitical issues and boost GDP growth, but it is also essential for a country’s overall success. 

“There are no low-energy, rich, developed countries–not one,” Bluntzer said. 

The U.S. Department of Defense requested that the TCU Ralph Lowe Energy Institute develop an energy security plan in the region that will bolster economic growth and deter these U.S. strategic partners from falling into China’s arms.

TCU has partnered with other universities, including Oklahoma State University and the University of Hawaii, and businesses in the private sector, such as the Norway-based Ocean Sun and Hyman Capital, a company led by TCU alum, Kyle Bass, to tackle these problems together. 

The emphasis placed on these partnerships stems from the idea that “private investment alone won’t succeed,” Bass said.  

The need for support from major and local governments must also come together if the project is to succeed sooner rather than later.  Countries like Japan, New Zealand, Australia, Taiwan and South Korea would be notable additions to these partnerships, helping those already involved take a major step ahead of China. 

The biggest issue with this project is making sure investors eventually see their returns; however, that could take some time. 

“The problem is the negative rate of return,” Bluntzer said. “No private capital will be interested unless there is government involvement.” Amongst five initiatives that TCU has with this project the fact that “energy can help solve geopolitical issues is at the top,” Bluntzer said. 

Fortunately, TCU’s findings also suggest that this project could lead to something much larger. “There’s compelling evidence for a domestic hydrocarbon fuel source suggesting exploration should be pursued,” Bluntzer said.

Bluntzer and the Pacific Island Energy Institute presented their findings to Admiral Samuel Paparo, the commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet, at the Joint Base Pearl Harbor–Hickam on Friday, Dec. 1.

The future of the Ralph Lowe Energy Institute's efforts in the South Pacific

New challenges arose regarding the project's success following a visit to Tonga by a TCU delegation in March 2024.

The purpose of the trip was "to do some on the ground research and find out if the project we are proposing to the U.S. Department of Defense is something that could realistically be implemented, and more importantly, is it going to be impactful to the people of Tonga?" said Bluntzer.

With the region facing many environmental and infrastructural obstacles including tsunamis and an insufficient grid framework, the team has to reimagine how to implement the same technology, but ensure it lasts.

Bluntzer said the proposed technology is the right fit for nations like Tonga.

During the visit, the delegation talked with local residents about the efforts TCU is making to improve the region and were met with excitement over the jobs it could bring and how these advancements could protect the nation from the effects of climate change, Bluntzer said.

This partnership between the U.S. and Tonga is intended to be an investment in the country's long-term economic independence.

"If you take an industry like energy and you're able to not only bring the latest and greatest technologies, but you're also able to train the people to maintain the work in this sector, then they won't have to fly in people from New Zealand to repair solar panels and wind turbines," said Bluntzer.

The hope for this project and the future of the Energy Institute is to build something that can be replicated.

"We're building a project management model where, as a higher education institution, we can come in and be the person at the table who doesn't have a personal interest in this other than trying to help build [their] economy and climate resiliency," said Bluntzer. "So the idea is here: let's start in Tonga and build a pilot project. Let's work with the government that wants to work with us and see what this looks like and how it gets implemented. Then, hopefully, this will be something we can replicate all over the globe in regard to vulnerable island nations."